Report - published December 10, 2014

Despite Broadcast Struggles, Fox Cable Assets Thrive

Despite Broadcast Struggles, Fox Cable Assets Thrive

Key insights from this report:

  1. Fox News has the highest household rating in primetime of the six Fox cable networks measured in this report. The network is averaging a 1.22 in primetime (Live+3), with FX following in second, Nat Geo third, FS1 and FXX neck-and-neck for 4th/5th and Nat Geo WILD bringing up the rear. The order is slightly different looking at the P 18-49 demo. Fox News plummets to a .17 rating, tied with Nat Geo Channel. FX is far-and-away #1 with a .56 rating. FXX moves past FS1 in P 18-49 and Nat Geo WILD remains 6th. In P 25-54, FX remains in 1st with a .58. Fox News improves a tiny bit with a .26 average, followed by Nat Geo, FXX, FS1 and Nat Geo Wild. FXX is the only one of the 6 to average a higher P 18-49 rating than 25-54.
  2. While the more prominent networks FX and NGC (to a lesser extent) may be down, Fox's small, niche networks have improved. This fact cannot be overlooked. FXX has doubled its average total viewership numbers in primetime this year to-date. As mentioned earlier in the report, the recurring Simpsons Marathon, movement of The League to the network have given the network a nice lift this year. It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia returns next month and that should continue to boost average for the new network. Male-skewing comedy isn't dead just yet. Fox Sports 1 also improved in 2014 with boosts from its live event programming. The programming slate was still rather barren when the network kicked off last August, but this year's success has received assistance from live event programming and the UFC (as we'll see below). Their studio shows, including the 11pm ET Fox Sports Live, still don't perform well. Nat Geo WILD is also up from last year thanks to programs like The Incredible Dr. Pol.
  3. In a quick and dirty comparison of Fox cable networks and Turner Broadcasting, TNT averages the most households of any of the 18 measured networks in primetime (10 Fox, 8 Turner), with Fox News not far behind. TBS, FX and Cartoon Network round out the top 5. Three of the top 10 networks in terms of households come from the Fox side. TBS is #1 in P 18-49, with FX right behind at #2. 4 of the top 10 P 18-49 networks are Fox. The number is the same among P 25-54, although TBS and TNT take the top 2 spots in front of FX. Turner's TCM was not included in this measurement, as it wasn't found in our Nielsen system.

It’s been pretty well publicized that FOX broadcast entertainment programs, both vets and rookies, haven’t performed up to par this season in terms of Live+Same Day Nielsen ratings. The network remains in 4th place, and it hasn’t been able to gain momentum this year within the P 18-49 demo, one that has traditionally gravitated to the network and allowed it  to stand out against its older-skewing broadcast competitors.

But today’s report looks at the positives, specifically the performances of FOX’s cable television networks. In addition to the FX Networks and National Geographic Channels,we’ll also examine Fox Sports 1 and Fox News Channel. How has each channel performed in 2014 versus 2013? How do they stack up against networks in other cable network groups? In which demographics have FOX’s channels improved where others haven’t (Hint: FXX averaged 20,000 F 18-34 viewers in primetime from January to December of 2013. The network has averaged 50,000 F 18-34 viewers in 2014 to-date.) Which are the most popular programs on each channel? This is one of the more ambitious reports Ratings Intelligence has taken on since it’s relaunch in September, but we’ll see what, if any, commonalities we can find among members of the Fox Cable Networks Group, and if said performance gives the company reason to be positive amid a poor performance from its broadcast network in 2014.

Fox Cable Networks Year To-Date Averages (HH%, P 18-49, P 25-54)

Here are the network primetime ratings averages using Live+3 data:

Fox News has the highest household rating in primetime of the 6 Fox cable networks measured. The network averages a 1.22 in primetime (Live+3), with FX following in second, Nat Geo third, FS1 and FXX neck-and-neck for 4th/5th and Nat Geo WILD bringing up the rear. The order is slightly different looking at the P 18-49 demo. Fox News plummets to a .17 rating, tied with Nat Geo Channel. FX is far-and-away #1 with a .56 rating. FXX moves past FS1 in P 18-49 and Nat Geo WILD remains 6th. In P 25-54, FX remains in 1st with a .58. Fox News improves a tiny bit with a .26 average, followed by Nat Geo, FXX, FS1 and Nat Geo Wild. FXX is the only one of the 6 to average a higher P 18-49 rating than 25-54.

Let’s take a look at the household ratings for these networks on a quarterly basis in 2014:

Fox Cable Networks Quarterly Primetime Household Averages (Live+3)

Fox News saw a dip from Q1 to Q2, but had a solid second half of the year and has peaked in the demo this quarter to-date.

FS1 saw a bit of a decline from Qs 1-3, but a strong October performance buoyed by the MLB playoffs and the return of college football undoubtedly boosted household ratings this quarter.

FX got off to a solid start, but then plummeted in the second quarter. The household ratings picked back up in the second half of the year thanks to popular dramas Sons of Anarchy and American Horror Story.

FXX got off to a slow start this year, but has steadily improved throughout with its comedy slate.

Nat Geo Channel has been a bit all of the place. It’s the only network out of the six to have the second quarter be its highest-rated of the year. And Nat Geo Wild is back up after a mediocre Q2 and Q3.

Fox News and Fox Sports 1 have closed the year in style, with 4Q being their highest rated of the year. There is still time for FX, FXX, Nat Geo Channel and Nat Geo Wild to make Q4 their strongest of the year.

Below is an expanded version of the above in table-form. This one shows average demo impressions and male/female ratings/impressions:

Primetime 2014 To-Date:

Media Selection P 2+ Proj (000s) P 18-49 Proj (000s) M 18-49 Proj (000s) M 18-49 Rtg % F 18-49 Proj (000s) F 18-49 Rtg % P 25-54 Proj (000s) M 25-54 Proj (000s) M 25-54 Rtg % F 25-54 Proj (000s) F 25-54 Rtg%
FOX NEWS CHANNEL 1790 210 117 0.19 92 0.14 310 172 0.29 138 0.23
FX 1351 713 387 0.62 326 0.51 690 374 0.64 316 0.52
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 526 215 131 0.21 84 0.13 246 152 0.26 94 0.16
FOX SPORTS 1 340 137 97 0.15 41 0.06 151 106 0.18 45 0.07
FXX 329 186 99 0.16 87 0.14 164 91 0.15 73 0.12
NAT GEO WILD 244 75 36 0.06 39 0.06 91 46 0.08 45 0.07

Fox News is #1 in total viewership, averaging almost 1.8 million total viewers per episode in primetime. FX blows the other five out of the water when it comes to persons 18-49 viewership. Nat Geo moves ahead of Fox News here as well. Five of the six networks have a male skew when it comes to 18-49 viewership. Nat Geo WILD is the exception, and it’s skew is almost 50/50. The following may be surprising, but Fox News averages more female viewers 18-49 than Nat Geo and FXX. FX remains the #1 channel when it comes to persons 25-54, and all six channels have a male skew in this demo. In general, it appears that Fox News has a more even gender distribution than Nat Geo, and FXX has a more even gender distribution than FX.

How do these numbers differ from each channel’s 2013 performance? The below measurements show network performance from December 31 2012 – December 29, 2013. The 2014 table above only goes from December 30, 2013 – December 8th 2014. 2014 is not complete and it’s possible that the averages could change.

Fox Cable Networks  2013 Primetime Performance

Media Selection P 2+ Proj (000s) P 18-49 Proj (000s) M 18-49 Proj (000s) M 18-49 Rtg% F 18-49 Proj (000s) F 18-49 Rtg% P 25-54 Proj (000s) M 25-54 Proj (000s) M 25-54 Rtg% F 25-54 Proj (000s) F 25-54 Rtg%
FOX NEWS CHANNEL 1783 209 125 0.20 84 0.13 301 165 0.28 136 0.22
FOX SPORTS 1 245 110 79 0.13 31 0.05 123 87 0.15 35 0.06
FX 1433 779 433 0.69 346 0.54 743 415 0.71 328 0.54
FXX 158 99 57 0.09 42 0.07 93 53 0.09 40 0.07
NAT GEO WILD 197 63 31 0.05 32 0.05 78 41 0.07 37 0.06
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 529 220 133 0.21 87 0.14 256 157 0.27 99 0.16

It appears that for now, Fox News is about stable compared 2013 in terms of total viewership, but the gender skew has changed a bit. Even though persons 18-49 impressions have stayed stable, more females 18-49 are tuning in than they did last year, and male 18-49 viewership is down. Additionally, Fox News seems to be experiencing a slight improvement in 25-54 viewership, specifically in male viewers. But let’s not get too extreme…the network’s average viewer age in primetime is still 65+.

Over on FX, viewership across the board is down this year to-date compared with the entirety of 2013. Even though the network remains majority male, the skew is a bit closer because the decrease in female viewership hasn’t been quite as significant as the decrease in male viewership.

Compared with 2013, Nat Geo  Channel is a bit down in average total viewership in 2014 across all demos, including average total viewership P2+ (529,000 vs. 526,000).

While the vets like FX and NGC may be down, Fox’s smaller, niche networks have improved. This fact cannot be overlooked. FXX has doubled its average total viewership numbers in primetime this year to-date. As mentioned earlier in the report, the recurring Simpsons Marathon, and new episodes of The League have given the network a nice lift this year. It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia returns next month to FXX and that should continue to boost average for the network. Male-skewing comedy isn’t dead just yet.

Fox Sports 1 also improved in 2014 with boosts from its live event programming. The programming slate was still rather barren when the network kicked off last August, but this year’s success has received assistance from live event programming and the UFC (as we’ll see below). Its studio shows, including the 11pm ET Fox Sports Live, still don’t perform well.

Nat Geo WILD is also up from last year. We’ll see which programs have helped boost the respective networks:

Fox Cable Network s’ Top 10 Primetime Programs: P2+, P 18-49, P 25-54

Originator Program P 2+ Proj (000s) P 18-49 Rtg% P 18-49 Proj (000s) P 25-54 Rtg% P 25-54 Proj (000s)
FX SONS OF ANARCHY 7040 3.68 4672 4.00 4780
FX AMERICAN HORROR STORY 6974 3.61 4584 3.31 3963
FX STRAIN 3815 1.74 2205 1.86 2226
FX JUSTIFIED 3732 1.31 1664 1.52 1822
FX FARGO 3418 1.09 1387 1.30 1554
FX TYRANT 2675 0.96 1216 1.08 1289
FX AMERICANS 2433 0.84 1066 0.99 1181
FX THE BRIDGE (CANCELLED) 2087 0.66 844 0.85 1013
FX ARCHER 1799 1.10 1397 0.94 1125
FX PARTNERS 1040 0.33 425 0.40 475
FOX NEWS CHANNEL AMERICAS ELECTION HQ 6301 1.02 1290 1.39 1661
FOX NEWS CHANNEL STATE OF THE UNION 2014 4728 0.91 1156 1.00 1198
FOX NEWS CHANNEL ST UNION/REP RESPONSE 4573 0.71 895 0.89 1065
FOX NEWS CHANNEL ST UNION/ANALYSIS 4168 0.65 820 0.81 972
FOX NEWS CHANNEL MAN WHO KILLED BIN LADEN 3331 0.38 479 0.53 639
FOX NEWS CHANNEL SR/ELECTION-HSE MAJ LDR 2798 0.29 374 0.42 502
FOX NEWS CHANNEL THE OREILLY FACTOR 2734 0.23 290 0.37 444
FOX NEWS CHANNEL SR/OBAMA-IRAQ HUM EFFORTS 2722 0.25 319 0.37 446
FOX NEWS CHANNEL SR/FT. HOOD SHOOTING CVG 2362 0.25 315 0.38 460
FOX NEWS CHANNEL KELLY FILE, THE 2248 0.21 262 0.32 386
FOX SPORTS 1 MLB NL CHAMPIONS SERIES L 4791 1.22 1549 1.40 1674
FOX SPORTS 1 NASCAR SPRINT CUP RACIN L 3658 0.91 1153 1.28 1535
FOX SPORTS 1 MLB NL DIVISION SERIES L 3432 0.91 1152 1.06 1268
FOX SPORTS 1 NASCAR WINNERS CIRCLE L 2877 0.89 1124 1.14 1366
FOX SPORTS 1 NASCAR VICTORY LANE L 1195 0.34 431 0.46 547
FOX SPORTS 1 ULTIMATE FIGHTER FINALE L 1132 0.59 752 0.62 744
FOX SPORTS 1 UFC FIGHT NIGHT L 961 0.46 589 0.48 580
FOX SPORTS 1 UFC PPV PRELIMS L 790 0.36 463 0.41 494
FOX SPORTS 1 COLL FOOTBALL: PAC 12 L 763 0.26 332 0.30 354
FOX SPORTS 1 ULTIMATE FIGHTER 758 0.41 516 0.42 504
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC LIFE BELOW ZERO 1559 0.42 540 0.54 651
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC WICKED TUNA 1410 0.52 661 0.64 771
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC LIFE BELOW COMPILATION 1190 0.28 360 0.36 428
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC BRAIN GAMES 1122 0.42 533 0.45 533
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC WICKED TUNA: NORTH SOUTH 1062 0.39 493 0.49 584
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ULTIMATE SURVIVAL ALASKA 1025 0.39 501 0.47 561
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ALASKA STATE TROOPERS 963 0.25 315 0.33 398
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC LIVE FREE OR DIE 891 0.29 371 0.36 430
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC INSIDE COMBAT RESCUE 884 0.28 353 0.38 456
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 90S: LAST GREAT DECADE 851 0.42 534 0.46 549
NAT GEO WILD INCREDIBLE DR POL 905 0.22 279 0.29 342
NAT GEO WILD KINGDOM OF THE APES 699 0.18 224 0.21 255
NAT GEO WILD MAN V. LION 637 0.21 268 0.22 263
NAT GEO WILD DR. KS EXOTIC ANIMAL ER 631 0.16 204 0.20 236
NAT GEO WILD DR. OAKLEY, YUKON VET 630 0.12 148 0.16 196
NAT GEO WILD YUKON VET 483 0.09 115 0.13 157
NAT GEO WILD ULTIMATE HONEY BADGER 479 0.14 173 0.18 211
NAT GEO WILD DR. POL: DEJA MOO! 475 0.10 133 0.14 163
NAT GEO WILD WE MOVE ANIMALS 475 0.08 107 0.13 150
NAT GEO WILD NILE 467 0.07 92 0.11 136
FXX SIMPSONS MARA 1338 0.67 854 0.55 658
FXX SIMPSONS HALLOWEEN MARA 825 0.37 468 0.36 430
FXX LEAGUE 782 0.54 691 0.52 616
FXX SIMPSONS 459 0.22 279 0.18 218
FXX COSMOS: SPACETIME ODYSSEY 301 0.12 156 0.14 166
FXX FXX MOVIE LATE 273 0.12 153 0.12 143
FXX LEGIT (CANCELLED) 251 0.13 171 0.14 164
FXX FXX MOVIE PRIME 249 0.10 128 0.10 122
FXX WILFRED 225 0.13 169 0.12 145
FXX ALI G: REZURECTION 149 0.09 115 0.08 98

As has been shown throughout the report, FOX has some valuable assets in its cable properties.  Tell numbers tell the story. After a slow start in 2013, Fox Sports 1 is beginning to gain some momentum, buoyed by their live event programming like NASCAR, NCAA college football, the MLB playoffs and UFC programming. Their studio shows and original shows still continue to struggle.

FXX is another rebranded network on the rise. The Simpsons marathons have scored superb numbers, and The League has expanded its reach to attract a nice female audience in addition to its traditional male base. A new season of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia airs on FXX in January, which should boost the network’s prospects even more.

FX continues to be a top 10 cable network, scoring especially high marks with the 18-49 demo. Sons of Anarchy continues to be one of the most popular shows on television, but the venerable series came to an end last night. With American Horror Story down a bit this year, it remains to be seen what FX will come up with next on the drama front. Fargo was a revelation, but is done. Justified kicks off its final season next month, and season 2 of The Bridge didn’t perform up to the network’s expectations for an expensive scripted drama, getting before season 3 as a result. This is a pivotal time for the network.

Fox News is another network on the rise, when so many others are on the decline. The network averages have been boosted by election-related programming, like America’s Election Headquarters, November’s events in Ferguson, The O’Reilly Factor, and the overall positive ratings garnered by Megyn Kelly’s studio program The Kelly File.

NGC has a ton of new series that recently premiered, in addition to last year’s anchors Life Below Zero and Drugs Inc. Wicked Tuna has become a successful series for the network, and Brain Games has continued to tread water. More more Nat Geo Channel-related info, click on the following link: https://ratingsintel.com/nat-geo-reels-in-males-with-unique-lifestyle-content/  (sub required).

Nat Geo WILD’s signature series has been (and continues to be) The Incredible Dr. Pol . The series, which premiered in 2011, follows Dutch veterinarian Jan Pol and his family and employees at his veterinarian office in rural Beal City, Michigan.The program averaged almost 1 million viewers per episode this year (Live+3 data). Kingdom of the Apes and Man vs. Lion also perform well for the network in 2014. WILD is rumored to be expanding its Sunday night programming slate based on a new partnership with Disney. The network is looking to expand its viewer base, adding more content that falls into the  “family” realm. Kid-friendly animal shows may be next for WILD in 2015.

it will be interesting to see how the channels finish up the last couple weeks of the year and their collective Q1 performance in 2015.

Fox Cable Networks vs. Turner Broadcasting System in 2014 Primetime (Live+3)

Here’s a quick comparison between the Fox cable networks and the Turner Broadcasting System networks:

Media Selection Households Proj (000s) Households Rtg % P 18-49 Proj (000s) P 18-49 Rtg % P 25-54 Proj (000s) P 25-54 Rtg%
TNT 1504 1.30 709 0.56 780 0.65
FOX NEWS 1416 1.22 210 0.17 310 0.26
TBS 1352 1.17 907 0.71 926 0.77
FX 993 0.86 713 0.56 690 0.58
CARTOON NETWORK 920 0.79 309 0.24 250 0.21
ADULT SWIM 838 0.72 529 0.42 389 0.32
TRUTV 448 0.39 285 0.22 294 0.25
CNN 436 0.38 149 0.12 187 0.16
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 396 0.34 215 0.17 246 0.21
HLN 287 0.25 92 0.07 118 0.10
FOX SPORTS 1 246 0.21 137 0.11 151 0.13
FXX 230 0.20 186 0.15 164 0.14
NAT GEO WILD 179 0.15 75 0.06 91 0.08
BOOMERANG 121 0.10 48 0.04 39 0.03
FX MOVIE CHANNEL 96 0.08 52 0.04 57 0.05
FOX DEPORTES 49 0.04 38 0.03 36 0.03
FOX BUSINESS NETWORK 37 0.03 8 0.01 10 0.01
FOX SPORTS 2 16 0.01 11 0.01 13 0.01

TNT averages the most households of any of the 18 measured networks in primetime (10 Fox, 8 Turner), with Fox News not far behind. TBS, FX and Cartoon Network round out the top 5. Three of the top 10 networks in terms of households come from the Fox side. TBS is #1 in P 18-49, with FX right behind at #2. 4 of the top 10 P 18-49 networks are Fox. The number is the same among P 25-54, although TBS and TNT take the top 2 spots in front of FX.

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Other reports on the key networks in this report: Fox News Channel, Fox Sports 1, FX, FXX, National Geographic Channel

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